SCS3: Supply and industry chain of critical minerals for low-carbon and clean energy development (2)

The global race to net zero has turned lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper and rare earths into "the crude oil of the clean-energy age". The IEA warns that by 2030 demand for these metals could rise 3- to 7-fold, and over 70 % of reserves and initial processing capacity sit in few countries of the Global South, but most southern nations remain locked into exporting raw or semi-processed ores or semi-processed products. High-value stages-advanced materials and end-of-life recycling-stay in the North, creating a "carbon in the South, profit in the North" imbalance. If the low-carbon transition is not used immediately to embed green mining, low-emission smelting, mutual-trust cooperation among South-South countries and closed-loop recycling throughout the chain, both resource holders and processing hubs will miss the next value-upgrade window and could slide into a new "resource curse" of social and environmental conflict. Building responsible, traceable, low-carbon and resilient critical-mineral supply chains is therefore a security imperative for northern consumer countries-and a development imperative for southern nations seeking to leverage South-South cooperation to share capital, technology and standards, upgrade local industry, multiply jobs and advance climate justice. Joint southern governance and mutually recognized ESG platforms are now a matter of urgency. This session will bring together multilateral agencies, companies, research institutes and universities to discuss supply security, green and sustainable development of whole mineral industry chain, value-upgrade routes and collaborative governance of critical-mineral chains in the age of clean-energy transition.

As the global energy transition accelerates to combat climate change, demand for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earths has surged. Yet, their complex supply chains are poorly understood, causing inefficiencies and delays in clean energy adoption. In this paper, we developed the energy transition mineral supply chain complexity index, revealing that advanced processing of final products, such as batteries, drives successful energy transitions, while raw material complexity varies widely. Our product adjacent possibility framework and supply chain complexity potential model guide nations in upgrading supply chains and forecasting future capabilities, addressing disparities between technology leaders and resource-rich countries. Our findings uncover a 'transition paradox', where entrenched strengths in specific supply chain tiers can impede progress, exacerbating global energy injustices by perpetuating unequal access to clean energy technologies and benefits. This framework equips policymakers to bolster supply chain resilience and promote energy justice, thereby accelerating the shift to a sustainable energy future within an ecological economic paradigm.

Global net-zero targets are expected to drive unprecedented growth in lithium demand, raising concerns about water scarcity in mining regions. Yet, the future water impacts of lithium extraction remain poorly quantified, especially when considering greenfield deposits, diverse extraction technologies, and local hydrological variability. Here, we present a spatially explicit assessment of the water scarcity footprint (WSF)-a metric that adjusts water use by regional water stress-across 187 global lithium deposits. Integrating demand projections, supply simulations, and site-specific water use data, we project a cumulative WSF of 1099 billion m³ water equivalent under a net-zero scenario. Brine evaporation contributes 69% of total WSF, while freshwater use accounts for 31%. Nationally, China, Chile, and the USA exhibit the largest footprints at 327, 262, and 260 billion m³, respectively. Combined demand- and supply-side mitigation measures could reduce the WSF by up to 46.8%, including enhanced end-of-life recycling (-15.9%), battery technology substitution (-10.4%), improved freshwater efficiency (-7.7%), brine recovery improvements (-6.0%), reinjection of waste brines (-3.5%), and direct lithium extraction adoption (-2.5%). These results highlight the urgent need for global coordination to align lithium-based decarbonisation with sustainable water management.