CS39: Energy Access, Mobility and Energy Poverty

Late payments and service arrears are a persistent challenge in electricity distribution markets, particularly among low-income households, exacerbating energy poverty and undermining both household welfare and utilities' financial sustainability. This paper examines how short-term liquidity shocks generated by the timing mismatch between electricity bill due dates and income receipt causally affect bill payment behavior.
We exploit a natural experiment in the Province of Tucumán, Argentina, where electricity bill due dates vary across and within households due to meter-reading schedules, while social security benefit payment dates are predetermined by beneficiaries' identification numbers. Using detailed administrative panel data on more than 20,000 low-income households between 2019 and 2022, we identify the causal impact of income timing relative to billing deadlines on electricity payment outcomes.
Our results show that when social security income arrives after the bill due date, the probability of on-time payment decreases by approximately 4 to 4.5 percentage points, representing nearly a 30 percent reduction relative to the baseline. We also find significant effects on payments made before the service suspension date, increasing the risk of service interruption. These effects disappear among households that pay by credit card, supporting liquidity constraints-rather than preferences-as the primary mechanism.
The findings highlight an overlooked design margin in electricity billing systems: the alignment between billing cycles and household income flows. While the empirical evidence comes from Argentina, the mechanism is broadly relevant across emerging economies with cash-transfer programs and binding liquidity constraints. Aligning due dates with income receipt schedules could reduce arrears, late fees, and disconnection risks without increasing subsidies or undermining cost recovery, offering actionable insights for regulators and electricity distributors.

Energy poverty remains a persistent barrier to socio-economic development in remote regions that depend on costly and carbon-intensive diesel-based power systems. In Colombia's non-interconnected zones, electricity provision is largely subsidized yet structurally reliant on diesel generation, despite the widespread availability of residual agricultural biomass suitable for gasification.


This study evaluates the potential of biomass-based mini-grids as an alternative pathway for rural electrification. We develop a bi-objective optimization framework to support centralized planning decisions, allocating existing electrification budgets across 575 off-grid settlements while simultaneously minimizing the energy access gap and the incidence of excessive household energy expenditures.


The model compares current diesel-based configurations with downdraft biomass gasifiers under realistic fiscal constraints. Results indicate that biomass systems could economically replace diesel generation in a substantial share of settlements, improving energy access outcomes without increasing total public expenditure. In addition, we find that redesigning subsidy structures, specifically through a more uniform support scheme, can translate operational cost savings into stronger protection against household energy overspending.


These findings highlight the joint importance of technology selection and subsidy design in enhancing the performance of off-grid systems. By integrating infrastructure transition and fiscal policy considerations, the study provides evidence for advancing sustainable mini-grid solutions in remote areas.

INTRODUCTION OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN SAUDI ARABIA: IMPACTS ON OIL CONSUMPTION, CO2 EMISSIONS, AND ELECTRICITY DEMAND
Muhammad Javid, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, Phone: +966538300791, Email: muhammad.javid@kapsarc.org
 Raed Ali Al-Mestneer, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, Phone: +966569576703, Email: raed.mestneer@kapsarc.org
Abstract
In this study, we estimate and project the number of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in Saudi Arabia up to 2050. The projected number of vehicles is then used to estimate and project the oil demand and CO2 emissions associated with the transport sector by 2050. Based on the projected number of ICE vehicles, we design three scenarios for developing electric vehicles (EVs) (high, moderate, and low-growth scenarios) to determine the impact of EV expansion on future oil demand, CO2 emissions, and electricity demand for EVs.
Our projections indicate that by 2050, the total number of ICE vehicles in Saudi Arabia could reach 29.6 million, approximately 2.5 times the 2023 level. Scenario projections of EVs show that by 2050, the number of EVs could reach 14.8 million in the high-growth scenario, 11.9 million in the moderate-growth scenario, and 8.9 million in the low-growth scenario. By 2050, the electricity for EVs in Saudi Arabia is projected to reach 47.7 TWh per year in the high-growth scenario, 38.2 TWh per year in the moderate-growth scenario, and 28.6 TWh per year in the low-growth scenario.
The adoption of EVs in Saudi Arabia can play a pivotal role in helping the country achieve its ambitious targets for reducing carbon emissions and curbing domestic oil consumption. Vehicle electrification can also support broader development objectives, such as enhancing inclusive mobility, improving local air quality, strengthening energy security, and advancing industrial policy initiatives.


 

This paper investigates how passenger-vehicle fleet composition, specifically electric vehicles (EVs) and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), shapes transport-sector carbon emissions across the European Union (EU) and whether environmental policy stringency (EPS) moderates this relationship. Despite EU climate targets, transport emissions have risen by 18.4% since 1990, with passenger cars contributing nearly 60% of road transport emissions. While EV adoption is expanding, progress remains fragmented across member states, raising questions about the effectiveness of current decarbonization strategies. Using a balanced panel dataset for 26 EU countries (2010-2023), the analysis applies the STIRPAT framework with country- and year-fixed effects, complemented by causal mediation analysis to assess the role of EPS. Robustness is ensured through Driscoll-Kraay Standard Errors, System Generalized Method of Moments to address endogeneity, and Method of Moments Quantile Regression to capture heterogeneous effects across the emissions distribution. Findings reveal that EV adoption significantly reduces transport emissions, whereas ICEVs remain the dominant driver of emissions growth. EPS partially mediates the EV-emissions relationship, which amplifies decarbonization gains in a mutually reinforcing dynamic consistent with the Porter hypothesis. However, EPS does not significantly attenuate ICEV-related emissions, which reveal the structural rigidity of fossil-fueled transport systems. Heterogeneity analysis shows EVs yield stronger emission reductions in low-emitting countries, while ICEVs exert increasingly severe impacts in high-emitting contexts. The results imply that achieving EU climate neutrality requires more than promoting EVs to binding ICEV phaseout mandates; targeted scrappage schemes for older vehicles; and accelerated charging infrastructure deployment, especially in lagging regions. Policy stringency should be differentiated, with stricter measures in high-emitting countries and stability-focused frameworks in advanced adopters to sustain progress.