CS12: Energy Transition

The commitment to "transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly, and equitable manner," established at COP28, has brought renewed attention to the role of hydrocarbons in emerging economies. This debate was further intensified by the discussions surrounding the "Roadmap" presented at the conclusion of COP30, which underscored the challenge of reconciling climate ambition with development priorities in producing countries. However, the implications of this transition differ significantly across countries, reflecting structural asymmetries in economic dependence, institutional capacity, and historical contributions to climate change.
This paper examines the role of oil and natural gas in Latin America's energy transition, with particular attention to Brazil. The analysis draws on energy balances, fiscal and trade data, and long-term planning studies to assess the interaction between hydrocarbons, economic development, and decarbonization strategies. In several countries in the region, oil and gas remain central not only to energy supply, but also to export revenues, public finance, and industrial activity.
The discussion is framed by the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC), which recognizes that countries face distinct starting points and constraints. The results suggest that pathways that disregard these differences risk weakening fiscal stability, increasing external dependence, and ultimately constraining the capacity to invest in low-carbon systems.
The Latin American case highlights the importance of sequencing and policy coherence. Rather than a uniform approach, a just transition requires strategies that reduce emissions while preserving economic resilience and enabling structural transformation over time.

AbstractThe energy transition, along with the electrification of the economy and society, has the potential to support rapid, sustainable development through positive cycles of progress across economic sectors. This research highlights the importance of policymakers recognizing and leveraging this opportunity for the benefit of society. However, the existing literature on energy transition, primarily focused on industrialized nations, does not explore how accelerating this approach could ultimately enhance sustainable development. 

This article introduces a comprehensive approach that enables a detailed analysis of energy consumption by sector in Colombia, considering technological substitution and the specific characteristics of energy use. The model assesses the impact of a set of public policies aimed at electrifying economic sectors, with feedback loops that affect GDP growth. Thus, the paper exploreshow the virtuous cycle involving energy transition and GDP growth speeds sustainable development - via a sector-specific focus for Colombia 

The results indicate that achieving 100% renewable electricity generation by approximately 2035 is feasible, alongside a significant increase in efficient power use to enhance comfort and support economic development. Total capacity is projected to increase threefold, rising from 20 GW to 74.7 GW, while system electricity demand is expected to grow by around 3.3 times, from 84 GWh to 281 GWh annually by 2050. This scenario is achievable without hindering economic growth, provided public policies are implemented to encourage sustainable and efficient energy consumption. 

The transition from fossil fuels to renewables across various sectors is crucial, as virtuous cycles in electricity use can not only create a cleaner energy matrix but also accelerate GDP growth throughout the economy. However, this research has not reached a conclusion regarding the potential adoption of green hydrogen or nuclear power to achieve a 100% CO2-emissions-free energy matrix.

Local energy options such as community batteries and microgrids are increasingly promoted as mechanisms to support renewable energy transitions while advancing energy justice. However, as these options remain relatively novel, households, energy providers, and policymakers face uncertainty regarding who is most likely to engage with them. This paper examines the determinants of household intentions to participate in community energy initiatives, with a particular focus on social, demographic, economic, perceptual, physical, and locational factors.
Using household-level data from the Energy Consumers Australia survey, we apply multivariate econometric models to analyse stated intentions toward local energy options. Descriptive analysis initially suggests higher interest among non-renters and households in separate dwellings, which appears counterintuitive given property-right constraints faced by renters. However, these relationships largely disappear once we control for a comprehensive set of household characteristics. Instead, education and pro-renewable energy perceptions emerge as robust drivers of community energy intentions, while financial pressure significantly reduces interest. Notably, household income is generally not a significant predictor.
We further explore heterogeneity through interaction analysis, finding that renters exhibit greater interest in community energy only when they are not experiencing financial pressure, with no significant differences across income levels. To situate community energy within a broader consumer decision framework, we also examine alternative responses such as switching energy providers or changing energy-use behaviour. Low education consistently limits engagement across all options, highlighting the importance of information provision.
These findings suggest that policymakers should look beyond income-based targeting when designing community energy programs, instead considering asset constraints, financial vulnerability, and information barriers to enhance both equity and effectiveness.

Rapid decarbonization of transport systems is central to global climate mitigation and energy-security strategies, yet little empirical evidence exists on how electrification unfolds within informal urban transport systems that dominate mobility and employment across the Global South. In Sub-Saharan Africa, motorcycle taxis (boda-bodas) remain heavily dependent on internal combustion engine technologies, raising a critical question: does electric motorcycle diffusion represent genuine energy transition through replacement of fossil-fuel capital, or merely energy addition driven by new market entrants?
This study addresses this question using original micro-data from motorcycle taxi operators- commonly known as boda-bodas- across the five divisions of the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area, Uganda. A mixed-methods design combines a Knowledge–Attitudes–Perceptions survey with qualitative interviews and focus groups to capture behavioral readiness, perceived risks, and institutional constraints surrounding electrification. These data are integrated into a multinomial discrete-choice econometric framework distinguishing three adoption states: ICE stayers, incumbent switchers to electric motorcycles, and new entrants adopting electric motorcycles upon entry. The model estimates how financing access, charging-infrastructure proximity, behavioral perception indices, income proxies, and operational characteristics influence adoption probabilities.
Preliminary results suggest that, despite lower operating costs and emissions benefits, structural barriers-particularly limited asset financing, uncertainty about battery reliability, and uneven charging infrastructure-significantly constrain switching among incumbent riders. Early diffusion therefore appears concentrated among new entrants, implying market expansion rather than fossil-fuel displacement.
The findings highlight the importance of targeted financing, infrastructure density, and trust-building information ecosystems in enabling inclusive low-carbon mobility. More broadly, the study provides new evidence on how informal transport economies in rapidly urbanizing low-income contexts can pursue sustainable development, livelihood protection, and energy security during electrification.

The growing role of green ammonia as a low carbon energy carrier is reconfiguring trade relations between regions with high renewable energy potential and industrial demand centers. Chile, with abundant wind resources both onshore and offshore in the Austral zone, and high solar potential in the northern regions, has emerged as a potential large scale exporter of green ammonia to Europe However, the feasibility of this trade depends not only on production costs but also on the design of European carbon pricing mechanisms and their influence on international competitiveness. This study explores the potential for green ammonia trade between Chile and Europe by assessing how carbon pricing, and export costs interact. This study uses the H2RES model to evaluate cost-optimal configurations for renewable hydrogen and ammonia production in Chile, explicitly considering the effects of the EU Emissions Trading System and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. The analysis identifies the conditions under which Chilean exports can compete with European production pathways under different technology cost. Our results suggest that carbon pricing plays a key role in determining trade viability, while differences in production conditions and system design influence export competitiveness.