CS23: Hydrogen Economy

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) are critical to low-carbon transport. However, the collective influence of government, market, and society on regional HFCVs adoption remains insufficiently examined. Drawing on institutional configuration theory, this study integrates Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA) with multi-period fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), utilizing panel data from 31 Chinese provinces between 2019 and 2024. The findings reveal that no single institutional factor is necessary for HFCVs adoption; instead, multiple effective configurations emerge from the interplay of institutional components. In period 1, adoption is driven by government-market synergy, government-society regulation, and full triadic coordination. In period 2, adoption pathways converge toward infrastructure-led development, government-society regulation, and trilateral collaboration becoming dominant patterns. Regional comparisons further reveal divergent adoption pathways across eastern, central, and western provinces. The findings elucidate the temporal-spatial evolution of institutional dynamics in green technology diffusion and offer targeted policy implications for HFCVs adoption.

This study analyzes the current state of the low carbon hydrogen industry, with particular emphasis on the structural adjustments and market dynamics observed over the past two years. The central research question is: How have recent economic, technological, and regulatory transformations reshaped expectations, scalability, and competitiveness in the global hydrogen market?
The research adopts a mixed-methods approach, combining a comprehensive review of market data with comparative case studies across the main hydrogen development regions: Europe, North America, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America. The analysis covers project pipelines, considering the advances and the project states, electrolyzer deployment levels, cost trends, and infrastructure progress. In addition, updated national hydrogen strategies were analyzed, and a comparative assessment of public policies and support mechanisms implemented since the early stages of hydrogen economy deployment was conducted.
The findings reveal a marked reset of expectations. The climate change and the post-pandemic vision of rapid expansion proved overly optimistic in light of the structural complexity of global markets. Scaling from pilot projects (MW) to industrial-scale developments (GW) has been slower and technically more challenging than initially anticipated. Furthermore, cost curve inertia persists: electrolyzer and electricity costs have not declined at the projected pace, affecting project bankability and financial closure.
In response, a strategic focus on niche applications-such as industrial clusters for fertilizers, maritime applications, SAF and hard-to-abate sectors-has emerged, where higher costs can be justified by their contribution to climate mitigation objectives. The development of hydrogen hubs, combined with effective public–private coordination and early engagement with local communities, is increasingly recognized as essential to reduce risks, accelerate infrastructure deployment, and strengthen competitiveness in the short to medium term
The study concludes that the hydrogen economy is entering a more disciplined implementation phase and, at least in the short term, should prioritize applications with high decarbonization potential and sufficient market conditions to absorb a green premium. Such strategic focus, supported by coordinated policy frameworks and integrated infrastructure planning, will be critical to advancing competitiveness while consolidating long-term market foundations.

Petroleum refining is responsible for significant industrial emissions, such as CO2. The economic pathways to viable decarbonization are challenging, characterized by volatile electricity prices and emerging carbon markets. This paper analyzes a simulated refining configuration with eleven main units that utilize green hydrogen production and carbon capture to produce low-carbon fuels while managing costs and carbon prices.
A hybrid artificial intelligence framework is developed that combines rigorous process simulation (Aspen HYSYS) with multi-objective optimization, seeking to simultaneously minimize operating costs and carbon intensity, to evaluate a 30,000-barrel-per-day refinery configuration. The model incorporates atmospheric distillation, hydroprocessing, and FCC units with oxy-combustion, with oxygen supplied by on-site water electrolyzers powered by grid electricity or on-site generation. The study considers Brazilian hourly electricity prices, demand patterns, and carbon prices to optimize electrolyzers and capture unit operations. Explainable AI techniques are applied to identify the primary drivers of emissions intensity and operating cost variability across scenarios. The analysis focuses on Brazil, considering its strength in renewable electricity capacity and hydrogen potential.
These results demonstrate a reduction in carbon intensity compared to conventional operation, with total operating cost as a function of electricity price volatility and carbon pricing levels. The analysis shows that operational flexibility, achieved by dynamically adjusting hydrogen production and capture rates in response to price signal behavior, significantly enhances economic viability relative to fixed-rate operation. Carbon market regulation impacts the economics of this model; these findings support decision-making on refinery investments and strategies to maintain industrial competitiveness during the energy transition, considering the interdependence of electricity sector decarbonization, hydrogen market development, and refining sector emissions trajectories, as well as economies' water and renewable energy availability.

Chile's solar and wind resources, combined with its National Green Hydrogen Strategy, position the country as a prospective leader in renewable-based fuel production. At the same time, Chile is already a major supplier of critical minerals such as copper and lithium and is expected to play an increasingly central role in providing materials for the energy transition. Decarbonising its energy-intensive mining sector while developing export-oriented green fuel value chains represents a national necessity and a strategic opportunity.
This paper develops a multi-commodity Energy Hub Model (EHM) to assess the techno-economic feasibility of co-locating renewable electricity generation, storage, electrolysis, synthetic fuel synthesis, and mining operations within an integrated system. The model is formulated as a mixed-integer linear optimisation problem and minimises total annualised system costs under technical, operational, and market constraints. It represents hourly renewable availability, grid interaction, load-dependent electrolyser efficiency, fuel synthesis (e.g., methanol), storage, and time-dependent mining electricity and fuel demand profiles.
The framework captures the use of renewable electricity for export-oriented fuel production and for supplying mining operations, while allowing a share of produced fuels to substitute fossil-based energy carriers in mining processes. Additional features include different Power Purchase Agreement structures, internal heat recovery, and revenue streams from residual heat and oxygen by-products. Economic performance is evaluated using the Levelized Cost of Methanol, complemented by carbon intensity calculations and a carbon price benchmark.
Scenario and sensitivity analyses explore alternative renewable supply configurations, investment strategies, and water sourcing options. Results quantify cost synergies from shared infrastructure, reduced renewable curtailment, and lifecycle CO₂ mitigation compared to fossil reference pathways. The findings demonstrate that integrated, co-located energy hubs can support green fuel exports and mining decarbonisation, providing a scalable blueprint for resource-rich regions linking renewable potential with industrial transformation.

This study investigates what best practices and challenges from international hydrogen market development can inform Brazil's strategic positioning in the emerging global low-carbon hydrogen economy.
The research employs comparative analysis of hydrogen strategies in five countries (United States, Germany, United Kingdom, Australia, and Chile) examining policy frameworks, infrastructure development, and market maturation stages. Data from global hydrogen production infrastructure databases were synthesized to map capacity distribution across study phases (initial studies, FID/construction, operation), production pathways (electrolysis versus CCUS), and implementation timelines against stated national targets.
The analysis reveals that all examined countries remain significantly distant from their 2025-2030 capacity targets, with predominantly pilot-scale operations. The US leads in electrolysis operational capacity (202.7 MW), while Australia dominates projects under initial studies (64,484.40 MW). Five critical best practices emerge: clear strategic commercial positioning oriented toward self-sufficiency, import dependency, or export potential; hydrogen hub development for cost reduction through shared infrastructure; competitive Contract-for-Difference mechanisms providing price certainty; demand guarantee (offtake) assurance reducing investment risks; and fiscal incentives for production and capital expenditure. Major challenges identified include persistently high production costs, infrastructure deficits, frequent project cancellations and delays, regulatory framework immaturity, political instability threatening incentive continuity, bureaucratic licensing processes, electrical grid limitations, and water scarcity concerns.
Brazil's strategic positioning requires balancing export potential with domestic industrial development. While geographic distance from major European and Asian demand centers creates logistical challenges, developing internal hydrogen demand for industrial decarbonization can drive market maturation and technological learning. Critical success factors include effective regulation and deployment of the approved PHBC, ensuring proper utilization of existing legal frameworks, establishing clear certification standards, and fostering regional hub development. Strategic infrastructure investments in production clusters near industrial centers can simultaneously serve domestic consumption and future export capacity, positioning Brazil competitively in the evolving global hydrogen market.